Your regular dose of BS (Behavioural Science) from the Changemakers at Social Change.
A one-minute introduction to a behavioural theory
Certainty Effect
Why do we often choose certainty over chance, even when it comes at a risk?
Think of your favourite restaurant. You spot a new dish that sounds delicious, but instead you stick with your usual order. Why? Because it’s a sure thing.
Even if the new option might be better, the fear of disappointment outweighs the chance of discovery. That craving for certainty doesn’t just influence what we eat, it quietly shapes decisions in everyday life, even when it holds us back from better outcomes.
This is the Certainty Effect in action. It shows up in more places than you’d think...
ITV’s Ant & Dec’s Saturday Night Takeaway had a brilliant way of putting this bias on display with its audience game, Win the Ads.
Contestants answered questions to win prizes, then faced a decision: Take what they’ve earned, or risk it all on one final question for the chance to win everything.
Most played it safe.
Even when the final question is doable, the fear of losing outweighs the potential thrill of winning. It’s not a flaw, it’s how our brains are wired. We’re loss-averse, and the desire for certainty often beats logic.
Want to better understand how your students make decisions, and how to support them through change? We can help.
In education, students often experience the Certainty Effect when choosing subjects. Faced with a choice between a course they know they can ace and one that excites them but feels riskier, many go with the safe bet.
Over time, this preference for certainty can steer learners away from their interests and limit growth opportunities, narrowing their potential...
In healthcare, the Certainty Effect can lead patients to choose treatments with guaranteed but modest benefits over alternatives that offer greater potential, just with a little more uncertainty.
For example, a patient might stick with a familiar medication that offers limited relief rather than try a new one that could be more effective, simply because the new option feels less certain, even when it’s backed by strong evidence.
Whether it’s advising patients to switch to a new diet to manage diabetes or offering a new pain management treatment, people are often reluctant to change. Uncertainty makes change hard, even when it’s in their best interest.
Want to better understand how your audiences make decisions, and how to support them through change? We can help.
Would you rely on ChatGPT to hire your next employee or draft a policy?
A recent study shows AI reflects human cognitive biases nearly 50% of the time, and sometimes even amplifies them.
For example, GPT-4 showed a stronger preference for certainty than people do, favouring decisions considered “safe” and away from innovative ones.
Other biases like overconfidence, risk aversion, and the endowment effect also showed up, even when questions were framed as business problems rather than psychological scenarios. This suggests AI doesn’t just repeat what it’s learnt or memorised; it reasons with the same blind spots we have.
At scale, this could mean:
What do you think, what’s the real risk when AI mirrors human bias? Join the conversation on LinkedIn.
Nearly half of adults in England struggle to understand written health advice and even more struggle when words are combined with numbers. That means many important messages are being missed, misunderstood, or ignored. But it doesn’t have to be this way.
Join hundreds of professionals already signed up for our free webinar on Thursday 5th June and discover how behavioural science can help us do better. You’ll learn:
If you work in public health, comms, or community engagement, this session is for you!
Are you a creative communicator who wants your work to matter?
We’re looking for a marketing and communications specialist who loves writing, planning meaningful campaigns, and seeing bold ideas come to life!
If you're results-driven with a curious mind, a collaborative spirit, and a passion for purpose-led work, this could be your next role. You'll be part of a small, talented team delivering campaigns that address real social issues.
Based in Lincoln with flexible hybrid working and a competitive salary, it's ideal for someone ready to take the next step in their career and wants their work to do some good.
Think this sounds like you? Apply by 12th June.
From food waste to funny campaigns... It’s all in your head! Explore the latest in our April newsletter.
More +
Purpose, progress, and B Corp Month - explore the latest in our March newsletter!
More +
The surprising truth about Valentine’s Day cards... Discover the behavioural science behind why 10% are sent to an ex in our February newsletter!
More +
Are you unknowingly sabotaging your new year’s resolutions? Unlock the behavioural science behind sticking to your goals in our January newsletter!
More +Enter your email address below to access the Academy and our Webinars
